India’s Specialty Fertiliser Prices Surge Following China’s Export Halt

Rising Fertilizer Prices in India

India is bracing itself for increased fertilizer prices as the crucial rabi crop season approaches. A senior industry official announced that China has halted urea and specialty fertilizer exports starting October 15, 2025.

Impact of China’s Export Suspension

China recently resumed its fertilizer exports from May 15 to October 15, but now has suspended this export window indefinitely. This change is expected to have repercussions not only for India but also for global markets.

The suspension affects specialty fertilizers such as TMAP (Technical Monoammonium Phosphate) and AdBlue, along with conventional fertilizers like DAP and urea.

Rajib Chakraborty, President of the Soluble Fertilizer Industry Association (SFIA), stated, “China has closed the export window from October 15 not only for India but the entire world market.”

Future Expectations for Fertilizer Prices

Chakraborty believes this suspension could last for the next 5 to 6 months. India currently relies on imports for about 95% of its specialty fertilizers, including essential materials like phosphates and emission-control fluids.

Due to these curbs, prices for specialty fertilizers, which are already significantly elevated, could increase by 10-15%. This situation raises concerns for producers and consumers alike.

Supply Challenges Ahead

India consumes around 250,000 tonnes of specialty fertilizers annually, with 60-65% used during the rabi season. However, an industry official noted that meeting current rabi season demands should not pose a problem, as traders have secured supplies through global trading agencies.

Although prices may be impacted, the supply is anticipated to hold steady for the ongoing season. Chakraborty adds, “If Chinese export curbs continue beyond March 2026 then it would be a concern.” The rabi season is expected to extend until March this year due to improved water availability.

Alternative Supply Sources

While India has alternative suppliers such as South Africa, Chile, and Croatia, these sources only cater to one or two products. Planning for future needs is essential as the industry navigates these uncertain times.